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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. It should alarm us all.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the America's power allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may come to rue the day if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.